出典確認済みリサーチ: Binance / OKX / Hyperliquid

How the round trip played out

Yesterday we covered the first half of this move in why Wormhole (W) was up 66%. Binance's four-hour spot candles now show the full shape.

For most of 11 October, W traded quietly around $0.0175 to $0.0178. The first push started in the 16:00 UTC candle that day and carried the price to $0.0233. The second, larger leg ran through the early hours of 12 October and printed the high of $0.03175 in the candle that opened at 08:00 UTC. That was the top.

From there the price fell in every four-hour block: $0.0259 by 12:00 UTC, $0.0241 by 16:00 UTC, $0.0213 by 20:00 UTC, and $0.0189 by midnight UTC. On 13 October it has steadied in a narrow band between about $0.0183 and $0.0205.

At 04:51 UTC, Binance spot showed W at $0.01923, down 32.97% in 24 hours, with a low of $0.01833. The Binance perpetual traded at $0.019243, down 32.99%. OKX's perpetual printed the same $0.019243, after a 24-hour high of $0.031832. NexuAlpha's market feed flagged WUSDT as one of the biggest movers of the day at -34.29%. By our arithmetic, the drop from the peak is about 39%, which erased nearly all of the gain.

The unwind in the futures data

The pump was built in derivatives, and the data show it being taken apart the same way.

Open interest. On Binance, open interest in the W perpetual was 509.2 million W ($8.69 million) at 04:00 UTC on 11 October. It peaked at 961.3 million W ($28.98 million) at 08:00 UTC on 12 October, the same four hours as the price top. By 04:00 UTC on 13 October it was down to 623.5 million W ($11.96 million). Of the roughly 452 million W of positions added during the run, about 338 million, or 75%, have been closed. OKX showed another 321.8 million W ($6.19 million), and Hyperliquid about 551.7 million W, roughly $10.6 million at its mark price.

Volume. Binance's W perpetual traded $725.1 million on 12 October, against $26.6 million two days earlier, about 27 times more. In the last 24 hours it traded $592.2 million, while Binance's W/USDT spot pair traded $42.85 million. Futures did about 14 times the business of spot on the same exchange.

Positioning. Binance's ratio of accounts long versus short was 0.71 at 12:00 UTC on 12 October, meaning about 59% of accounts with a position were short just after the top. By 04:00 UTC on 13 October it had moved to 1.04, with 51% long. Smaller accounts that were betting against the pump at the top are now, on balance, buying the dip.

Funding is now negative everywhere

On 12 October, funding pointed in opposite directions: negative on Binance and OKX, strongly positive on Hyperliquid. Today all three are negative, which means shorts are paying longs.

• Binance: the last settled rate was -0.0433% for the four hours to 04:00 UTC, and the predicted rate for 08:00 UTC was -0.0448%. It was -0.0269% at 20:00 UTC on 12 October.
• OKX: -0.0348% for the period ending 08:00 UTC, also on a four-hour cycle.
• Hyperliquid: -0.00655% per hour, which works out to about -0.026% over four hours. Yesterday it was about +0.04% per hour.

For a $10,000 short on Binance at the predicted rate, that is about $4.48 paid every four hours, or roughly $27 a day if the rate held, by our arithmetic. Negative funding after a crash usually means traders are still leaning short into a market that has already fallen. That can feed a short squeeze, or it can simply fade as positions close; the data do not tell you which. Our funding-rate board shows where each venue stands now.

Did Korean traders drive it?

Upbit's KRW-W market was busy. In the twelve hours from 00:00 to 12:00 UTC on 12 October, it traded 63.8 billion won, about $47 million at Upbit's own USDT price of roughly 1,348 won. In the same twelve hours, Binance spot traded $42.1 million. Over the last 24 hours Upbit traded 71.7 billion won, about $53 million, more than Binance spot.

There was no premium, though. Upbit's high of 42.8 won equals about $0.0317 at 1,349 won per USDT, the same as Binance's high, and today's 26.0 won is about $0.0192, again level with Binance. Korean spot buyers were part of the move, but the price was set in step with offshore futures rather than ahead of them.

What we could not find

We checked Wormhole's blog again on 13 October. The newest post is still the supported-networks update we cited yesterday, and nothing since then explains a 78% rise or a 39% drop. Our own liquidation feed covers Bitcoin, Ether and other majors, not W, so we cannot give a reliable figure for W liquidations. We also cannot say who opened or closed the large positions.

What to do if you hold or trade W

• If you bought spot near the top, the loss is real but the token is still above where the move started. Decide on the token's own merits, not on yesterday's chart.
• If you trade W perpetuals, remember that a 4-hour funding cycle at -0.04% adds up fast. Shorts pay roughly 0.27% a day at today's Binance rate.
• If you are tempted to chase the next spike, look at open interest first. When open interest jumps far faster than spot volume, the move is mostly leverage, and leverage unwinds.

How to act on this

Moves like this punish high leverage on both sides. If you trade small-cap perpetuals, keep leverage low, size positions so a 30% candle does not liquidate you, and check funding before you hold overnight. For on-chain perpetuals with transparent funding and open interest, Hyperliquid lists W; you can sign up there with code NEXU888. Live liquidation totals for the majors are on our liquidations page.

Quick answers

Why is W down today? The futures-driven rally of 11-12 October unwound. Open interest fell, funding turned negative and the price returned close to its starting level. No new Wormhole announcement explains it.

How far has W fallen from its peak? From $0.03175 to about $0.0192, roughly 39%. It is still about 8% above its $0.0178 starting point.

Is W funding negative? Yes, on Binance (-0.0448% predicted for 08:00 UTC), OKX (-0.0348%) and Hyperliquid (-0.00655% per hour) as of 04:51 UTC on 13 October.

Was there a Korean premium? No. Upbit traded heavy volume, but its won price matched Binance in dollar terms at the peak and today.