출처 검증 리서치: Binance / OKX

What happened overnight, hour by hour

Times below are Singapore Time (SGT, UTC+8); prices are Binance BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT hourly candles.

CoinDesk, which tracks its own index, timed the low at just under $81,000 at 00:50 UTC, or 08:50 SGT. Its report also put the day's backdrop in numbers: the KOSPI fell more than 6% intraday to below 6,000, its lowest since late July; Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each lost about 8% for a fifth straight losing session; and Nasdaq futures were down 0.6%. WTI crude traded near $92.67 and Brent around $106, keeping inflation worries alive ahead of Thursday's US CPI report.

The squeeze in our own liquidation data

Our liquidation collector reads Binance USDT-margined force orders and OKX liquidation orders for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP and DOGE. As of 16:48 SGT, it shows how the flow flipped within a day:

The single largest order in the last four hours was a $2.14 million ETH short closed on OKX at 13:23 SGT. Over the full 24 hours, ETH accounted for $85.1 million of forced closes and BTC for $46.0 million, which is why ether bounced harder than bitcoin: ETH is up about 4.8% from its $2,409 low, against about 3.3% for BTC.

CoinDesk's wider count across ten exchanges tells the same story from the other side. It recorded about $803 million liquidated over 24 hours, 86% of it longs ($694 million), with roughly $595 million in the 12 hours around the KOSPI drop. The largest single wipeout was a $9.65 million BTC long on Binance, closed near $81,700. Then the flow reversed: of $74 million liquidated in the following four hours, $59 million, or 79%, came from shorts.

Not just short covering: open interest rose

A pure squeeze usually shrinks open interest, because shorts are forced out. That is not what Binance's futures data shows today. Between 07:00 SGT and 16:00 SGT, BTC perpetual open interest rose from about $7.67 billion to $7.84 billion (+2.3%) and ETH from $5.58 billion to $5.86 billion (+5.0%). So while shorts were being closed, new positions were opening at higher prices. Funding stayed mildly positive: 0.0076% per eight hours on BTC and 0.0071% on ETH at Binance, so longs are paying, but not at a stretched level.

The practical reading is that leverage has been rebuilt on both sides within half a day. With CPI on Thursday, a second shake-out in either direction would not need much news.

Where the selling went: chip-stock perps

The odd detail today is that a memory-chip stock out-liquidated a top-five crypto asset. CoinDesk counted about $19 million of liquidations on SanDisk (SNDK) perpetual futures in 24 hours, ahead of XRP, with SK Hynix, Micron and the triple-leveraged SOXL ETF also on the map and $7.21 million liquidated on SOXL alone.

Binance's own futures tickers at 16:50 SGT show those contracts are still under pressure even as BTC recovers:

The funding column is the warning. Longs on SK Hynix are paying about 17 times the BTC funding rate every eight hours, and SanDisk longs about 7 times, while the stocks fall. That is a crowded long that keeps paying to stay open.

How to act on this

If you are trading the bounce, size for the CPI print rather than for today's candle: keep leverage low enough that a 3% move against you, the size of this morning's drop, does not reach your liquidation price, and check the funding board before holding a stock perp overnight, because a 0.13% charge every eight hours is about 0.38% a day. If you trade perps on OKX, registering with code nexu888 through our OKX page returns 40% of your trading fees, which cuts a 0.05% perp taker fill to 0.03%. For the live picture through Thursday, keep our liquidation tracker open.

Quick answers

Why did bitcoin drop below $82,000 this morning? The drop came with a sell-off in Asian chip stocks: the KOSPI fell more than 6% and Samsung and SK Hynix about 8% each, and leveraged longs were liquidated as BTC fell to $81,033.

Is this a short squeeze? Partly. In the four hours to 16:48 SGT, short liquidations were $83.2 million of $83.3 million in our feed. But open interest also rose, so new longs joined the move.

Why is ETH up more than BTC? ETH had more short liquidations ($61.7 million in four hours) and bounced about 4.8% from its low, against about 3.3% for BTC.

What is the next catalyst? Thursday's US consumer price index report, which traders expect to be met with more hedging rather than outright selling, according to CoinDesk's sources.

What are chip-stock perps? Perpetual futures on crypto exchanges that track stocks such as SanDisk or SK Hynix, traded around the clock with no expiry. Today they took a large share of the liquidations.