Ricerca verificata da fonti: OKX / Binance / Hyperliquid

What Trump posted and what is confirmed

On Sunday morning US time, Trump wrote on Truth Social: "Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!" He gave no further details, according to the Guardian.

What is confirmed is limited. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Axios the announcement was "news for me" and that Ukraine would agree if Russia did, adding that Kyiv wanted to know when it would begin; both CoinDesk and the Guardian carried his remarks. The Guardian also reported that Ukrainian officials said Russia was still bombing Ukraine on Sunday, with several energy sites damaged, and that Trump had made a similar energy-ceasefire claim in September that turned out to be untrue.

The post landed in the middle of a public dispute. The Guardian reported that Trump had announced on Friday that he was lifting sanctions on Russian diesel exports, saying it would lower fuel prices before the November midterm elections, and that Zelenskyy had called the decision "weak". CoinDesk noted that oil prices were barely moving on Hyperliquid at the time and that Polymarket put the odds of a Democratic sweep of both chambers at 62%.

What our liquidation feed recorded

The numbers below come from NexuAlpha's own feed, read at 16:48 UTC on 11 October (00:48 on 12 October in Beijing). It covers the Binance USDT-M force-order stream plus OKX liquidation orders for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP and DOGE, so it is a lower bound for the whole market.

Our arithmetic from those figures: about 91% of all the short liquidations we recorded in the full day happened in the final four hours. Before that window, the day had been quiet.

ETH carried the squeeze. OKX's ETHUSDT contract accounted for $7.25 million of the four-hour total, about 58%, followed by OKX BTCUSDT at $3.24 million, SOLUSDT at $1.23 million, DOGEUSDT at $642,757 and XRPUSDT at $177,269. The biggest single liquidation was an ETH short of $2,528,150 on OKX at 15:40:26 UTC; in the last hour, the largest was a BTC short of $713,965 at 15:58:52 UTC.

On price, Binance's BTCUSDT perpetual opened the 15:00 UTC hour at $83,090.9, reached $83,955 and closed it at $83,868.7, a gain of about 0.9% in one hour; the next hour touched $84,024.4. At 16:48 UTC BTC was at $83,886.5, up 1.07% over 24 hours, and ETH was at $2,548.47, up 1.70%. A rise of around 1% is small by crypto standards, which tells you how crowded the short side had become: it did not take a large move to force a wave of closures. The live figure is on our liquidation tracker.

Why it was a squeeze: the setup in funding

The clearest clue is funding, the periodic payment between long and short holders of perpetual futures. When it is negative, shorts pay longs, which signals that more traders are betting on a fall. Binance's settled funding for ETHUSDT was −0.0118% at 00:00 UTC and −0.0117% at 08:00 UTC on 11 October, and BTCUSDT settled at −0.0027% and −0.0010%. Those are small numbers per eight hours, but they showed which side was crowded. Earlier the same day we reported that shorts took 85% of $11.9 million in liquidations as funding turned negative.

At the 16:00 UTC settlement, both flipped: ETHUSDT settled at +0.0012% and BTCUSDT at +0.0013%. At 16:48 UTC the next Binance payment was projected at +0.0016% for both BTC and ETH, while OKX still showed slightly negative rates (−0.0005% for BTC, −0.0004% for ETH). In plain terms, the squeeze cleared out enough shorts that the crowding eased. Our funding-rate board shows both venues side by side, and our funding rate explainer walks through the arithmetic.

Did the post cause the squeeze?

We cannot say that, and nor can anyone else with the data available. CoinDesk's report on the announcement said markets were "for the moment" not reacting, with bitcoin just under $83,000, and observed that Trump's weekend posts no longer move markets the way they once did. The liquidations clustered later in the afternoon. A ceasefire headline that cannot yet be confirmed by Moscow, and that Kyiv learned about from the press, is a weak foundation for a sustained rally.

The more defensible reading is mechanical: a market that had leaned short for a day, in thin Sunday trading, needed only a modest push to trigger stop-outs, and each forced buy pushed the price into the next cluster of liquidation levels. Weekend sessions make that easier, because fewer resting orders sit on the books.

What to watch next

• Confirmation from Moscow and Kyiv. If Russia confirms an energy ceasefire with a start date, the headline becomes a fact; if it is denied or ignored, as in September, risk appetite built on it can fade.
• Monday's traditional market open. CoinDesk noted traditional oil trading had not yet opened; oil and US index futures will show whether the story carries outside crypto.
• Funding after the flip. If funding stays slightly positive, positioning is balanced again. A quick return to negative funding would mean shorts are rebuilding, which sets up the same squeeze risk.
• ETH concentration. More than half the squeeze hit one OKX contract. A concentrated short base in a single contract is where the next cascade can start.

How to act on this

The lesson of a squeeze is about position size, not direction. If you hold a short in a market where funding has gone negative, you are on the crowded side: lower your leverage, use isolated margin so one trade cannot drain your account, and set your stop away from the obvious round numbers where liquidation orders cluster. Check the liquidation tracker and the funding board before holding a leveraged position over a weekend. Trading costs are the part you control: on OKX, where most of today's liquidations happened, a regular account pays 0.02% maker and 0.05% taker on USDT perpetuals, and registering with code nexu888 returns 40% of trading fees, settled hourly. If you prefer on-chain perpetuals, Hyperliquid is the largest perp DEX and you can sign up with code NEXU888. See the OKX profile and the Hyperliquid profile.

Quick answers

What is a short squeeze in crypto? A fast rise that forces traders who bet on a fall to close their positions. Their forced buying pushes the price higher, which liquidates more shorts in turn.

How much was liquidated in the 11 October squeeze? Our feed recorded $12.54 million in the four hours to 16:48 UTC, 99.7% of it shorts, as a lower bound for the whole market.

Which coin was hit hardest? ETH. OKX's ETHUSDT contract accounted for about 58% of the four-hour total, including the largest single order, a $2.53 million short.

Did Russia agree to the energy ceasefire? At the time of writing, the sources we read reported no confirmation from Moscow. Zelenskyy said Ukraine would agree if Russia did.

Is the funding rate still negative? Not on Binance: BTC and ETH settled slightly positive at 16:00 UTC. OKX was still marginally negative at 16:48 UTC.

Limits of this article

Liquidation figures come from NexuAlpha's feed, which records at most one Binance order per symbol per second and only selected OKX contracts, so the market-wide total was higher. Prices, funding and liquidation totals were read at about 16:48 UTC on 11 October 2026 and will have changed. We report the timing of the ceasefire post and the squeeze; we do not claim one caused the other. This is market data and analysis, not a forecast or investment advice. Partner links may earn NexuAlpha a commission paid by the exchange, at no extra cost to you.