Fed Holds Rates at 3.75–4% in 10–2 Vote After Polymarket's 95% Hold Reading

The result replaces the meeting forecast

Odaily's earlier item, published at 20:29 SGT on October 28, cited PPP monitoring of Polymarket. It put the probability of no October rate change at 95% and described increases over the previous day and week. That was a reading before the decision, useful for understanding the expectation entering the announcement. It should remain attached to its observation time. The pre-decision report.

The Fed has since supplied the outcome directly. Its October 28 statement maintains the range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The published release time of 2 p.m. EDT corresponds to 02:00 SGT on October 29. A reader in Singapore therefore encounters a decision dated October 28 in the original document while following the announcement early on October 29 locally. Those dates describe the same release.

An Odaily item published at 02:08 SGT also reported the unchanged 3.75–4% range and the 10–2 vote. That report corroborates the outcome; it does not independently establish the earlier Polymarket probability. The two figures answer different questions, and should not be combined into a claim that every detail of the prediction-market observation has been independently reproduced. Odaily's result report.

For a trading note, write the published target range in the result field and leave 95% in a separate expectations field. Avoid copying a pre-meeting headline into a post-meeting order rationale without changing its tense. The decision is now an observed policy action. The probability remains a historical report about how one market priced the possible result.

What the 10–2 split actually says

The official release identifies both dissenters and the alternative they supported. Cook and Hammack preferred to raise the target range by one quarter of a percentage point. That is 25 basis points, using 100 basis points per percentage point. The statement does not describe a split between members seeking a hold and members seeking a cut. The dissent recorded by the Fed.

This distinction matters when reading short summaries of the meeting. “Two dissenters” leaves the direction of disagreement unstated. Here the direction is available in the primary document, so keep it in the description. A hold approved with two votes for an increase carries a different set of expressed preferences from a hold with two votes for a decrease. Neither description, by itself, specifies what the next decision will be.

The two endpoints of the range are 3.75% and 4.00%. Their difference is 0.25 percentage points. That arithmetic describes the width of the target range; it is separate from the quarter-point increase the dissenters wanted. Do not describe the width of the range as a new increase, or report one endpoint as though it were the entire policy decision.

For a BTC or ETH trader comparing headlines, these are the numbers to copy together: the 3.75–4% target range, the 10–2 vote, and the 25-basis-point alternative favored by the dissenters. Preserve their labels. The vote count measures support for the action, while the rate range describes the action itself.

Inflation stays in the statement

The Fed describes economic activity as expanding at a strong pace. It says domestic spending has been resilient, productivity growth is strong and capital investment is robust. It also says job gains have kept pace with the workforce and unemployment has changed little. These are the committee's descriptions of the economy, rather than figures this article has reconstructed from separate economic datasets. The committee's economic assessment.

The same statement says inflation remains elevated. It links the accumulation of additional information to determining the policy stance needed for a timely return to its 2% inflation goal. That wording provides a reason to read beyond the unchanged target range. The committee preserved a need for further assessment instead of publishing a schedule of future rate changes.

The release also says uncertainty remains elevated, partly because of geopolitical developments, and that the committee is maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. Those statements belong to this decision. They do not supply a numerical forecast for Bitcoin, Ether, the dollar or Treasury yields. The statement supplies no BTC or ETH price observation.

For someone evaluating an exchange position, a useful reading order is the decision first, the dissent next, then the economic assessment. That keeps the confirmed action separate from possible interpretations of future policy. It also gives you a compact set of source lines to revisit if a later headline claims the committee promised a particular next move.

Read 95% as an earlier observation

The 95% figure in Odaily's report is attributed to PPP's monitoring of Polymarket. The material opened for this article does not include a directly captured Polymarket order book or that market's complete resolution rules. Accordingly, this article uses the figure as an attributed pre-decision report and does not present it as a new live quote. The probability's source and timestamp.

Odaily's headline also describes the daily change as 2%. Without the underlying earlier price and measurement convention, this article does not relabel that change as two percentage points. The 95% level is sufficient to explain the reported expectation. There is no need to derive a precise earlier probability from an ambiguous change label.

A reader who held a prediction-market position should compare the exact market question, the specified decision date and the resolution source with the published Fed statement. Do that before treating a macro headline as confirmation that a particular contract has settled. The outcome in the policy document and the status of an individual prediction-market contract are separate checks.

For exchange users, the same discipline helps when a chart or notification quotes the earlier probability after the release. Record the observation time, then read the official action. A forecast can describe what traders expected without supplying the current state of an exchange order, the latest executable BTC price, or the terms of a different financial product.

A position check built around this announcement

1. If your BTC or ETH position is on OKX, open that exact instrument in your account and compare its position direction and quantity with every outstanding order. For an order prepared before 02:00 SGT, reread its price condition and record whether the published Fed decision changes your reason for leaving it open. Identify spot or derivatives, and retain the contract name and settlement asset where applicable.

2. For a derivative position, record the displayed margin, liquidation level and funding information where available, together with the contract name and time. Use those contract values for the account review. The Fed's 3.75–4% range states a policy target and supplies no funding rate for your instrument.

You can keep the funding-rate board beside your own contract record and use the liquidations page to organize a separate market review. Check the time and instrument on each screen before comparing it with your position. This article does not quote current values from those tools or claim that they confirm a particular post-announcement move.

Finally, keep a record of any order you change, including the time, quantity and reason. A note such as “reviewed after the published hold and the two votes for a hike” states the information you used. Writing that the Fed guaranteed a direction for BTC would add a conclusion that does not appear in the source.

What to read next

The next useful policy evidence is the Fed's subsequent communication and any economic information it actually cites. This statement provides no fixed result for a later meeting. If a later report names a future increase or decrease, identify whether it quotes a new official statement, reports a market probability or presents an analyst's expectation. Keep the category with the claim.

For the current decision, the primary document resolves the headline question: the target range stayed at 3.75–4%, with two dissenters preferring an increase. The unresolved items in this article are narrower: the underlying Polymarket snapshot was not independently reproduced, and no post-release BTC or ETH execution price was verified. Use your exchange's instrument and order records for the account review, and the Fed release for the policy result.

Quick answers

Did the Fed change rates in October?

The target range stayed at 3.75–4%, according to the October 28 statement.

Who voted against the decision?

Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack preferred a quarter-percentage-point increase.

Is the 95% figure a current Polymarket quote?

This article uses Odaily's time-stamped pre-decision report. No fresh Polymarket quote was independently captured.