Galaxy Says Bitcoin’s Bear Market Ended: The 50-Week Test Behind Its Call

Why Galaxy changed its assessment

Decrypt attributes the latest view to Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research. According to its report, Bitcoin regained its 50-week moving average in September after spending 44 weeks below it. The week ended October 18 then marked the fifth consecutive weekly close above that line. Galaxy describes the market as being in an accumulation phase. Those are the observations behind the current assessment; the word “ended” is the firm’s conclusion about them.

There is a difference between identifying the low retrospectively and identifying a price at which to place a new order. A June low and a September confirmation describe separate points in the sequence. Someone acting after confirmation is responding to evidence that appeared after the low. The research cannot turn that later decision into a purchase at June’s price.

Galaxy’s own earlier work shows how it arrived at this framework. Its August 28 article, “All Eyes on BTC’s 50-Week Moving Average,” examined the longer-term average as a historical ceiling during bear markets and the 200-week average as a historical floor. It recorded the current episode as provisional at that time. That older article provides background for the method, rather than confirmation of October’s latest readings. Galaxy’s August research

The sequence matters when comparing screenshots. The August article described a market still approaching its 50-week average. Decrypt’s October report describes a market that has already reclaimed it. Combining the August chart level with the October conclusion would mix observations from different dates.

The historical exceptions belong in the story

Galaxy’s August study did not describe every crossing of the moving average as successful. It identified two upward crossings during the 2021–22 bear market, on December 26, 2021 and March 27, 2022, that preceded lower lows. Each lasted only a week or two. The same study said that in four of the five completed bear markets that lost the average, the first weekly close back above it proved to be the durable reclaim. Galaxy

These are separate statements. The historical record includes both successful recoveries and failed crossings. Reporting only the successful group would remove the part of Galaxy’s own work that explains why duration and the weekly closing basis matter. It would also turn a conditional framework into a mechanical instruction.

Decrypt’s account of the newer research says Galaxy isolated four historical reclaims that followed at least 20 weeks below the average. The current reported spell of 44 weeks exceeds that threshold. This explains the comparison Galaxy is making. Four cases remain four cases; the report’s grouping is a description of a selected historical sample, not an additional observation about today’s order book.

For readers checking that claim, keep the unit consistent. A weekly close is not the same observation as a brief move through a line during the trading week. Galaxy’s stated invalidation condition also uses a weekly close and a subsequent recovery window. An intraday screenshot alone cannot answer either test.

ETF holdings and dormant coins explain another part of the call

The latest report also discusses supply and ownership. Decrypt says Galaxy found that coins dormant for at least five years were being sold at about 34,000 BTC per month this year, roughly half the pace in 2024. The finding is presented as evidence that selling pressure has eased. It is not a count of coins newly purchased by Galaxy, nor does it establish the identity of every counterparty.

The distinction is useful for someone holding BTC on an exchange. A measure of old coins moving or being sold describes a part of market supply. It does not tell that account holder whether a specific limit order will fill, what spread the venue currently shows, or which order size is available at the displayed quote. Those questions require the actual market screen.

Decrypt also reports that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs added 87,000 BTC after the June low. In Galaxy’s comparison, ETF holdings had fallen 11% from peak to trough while Bitcoin’s price fell 53%. Holdings and price have different denominators. An 11% change in coins held by those funds should not be read as an 11% change in every investor’s exposure.

This is why the reported accumulation figure and a daily flow headline can coexist. The 87,000 BTC figure covers the period after the June low. A shorter observation window answers a different question. Before comparing numbers, write down the start date, end date and whether the unit is BTC or dollars. Do not add a coin balance to a dollar flow or describe a multi-month net change as a single trading day’s purchase.

A practical way to review an existing BTC position

1. Start with the position you already have. On your exchange, open the BTC position or asset screen and record the product name, amount held and any open orders. If the position uses borrowed funds or a derivative, review the margin and liquidation information actually displayed for that product. Galaxy’s weekly research does not specify the terms of your account or the venue’s current contract rules.

2. Open a weekly BTC chart and check which price series it uses. Record the observation date and whether the candle has closed. Compare the period and series before comparing its moving average with the figure in the report. Treat $76,540 as a dated value cited in Galaxy’s assessment, rather than a permanent line that remains unchanged on every later chart.

3. Review what the order would do to exposure. A pending purchase can increase holdings if it executes; a pending sale can reduce them. Read the amount and order type before confirming a change. The relevant decision is the exposure after execution, rather than whether the headline sounds optimistic. Check fees and eligibility for the exact product in your account. Before editing an order, record its identifier, remaining amount and current status. After saving the change, compare those fields with the intended quantity. This creates a concrete record of the action taken, separate from the chart observation that prompted the review.

For a separate review of derivatives conditions, open the funding-rates board and read the market and timestamp attached to the displayed observation. The liquidations board can be consulted for its own stated window. Neither tool has been used to supply a current market number in this article; they are places to make a fresh check before changing an order.

What would challenge the thesis

Decrypt reports a specific condition for Galaxy to reassess: a weekly close below the 50-week moving average, cited at $76,540, followed by a failure to regain it within a month. This gives readers a more precise question than whether a daily price decline feels large. It requires a closing observation and the subsequent recovery period, using the framework described by the firm.

A weekly framework also leaves practical questions open. It does not state what happens to an individual position before that weekly close, and it does not replace the margin terms on a trading account. A trader can therefore agree that the research is worth monitoring while separately checking whether an existing position can tolerate the conditions shown in the account.

The current Galaxy client note was not independently obtained in full; the current indicators above come from Decrypt’s account of it. The report does not establish the current quote, funding rate, account eligibility or executable depth for a specific exchange product.

Quick answers

Did Galaxy announce a new Bitcoin purchase?

The event covered here is a research assessment attributed to Galaxy and Alex Thorn. The opened reporting does not establish a new corporate Bitcoin purchase. A research view and a treasury transaction are different events.

Is the 50-week average a guarantee that the low is in?

Galaxy’s own historical study includes failed reclaims in the 2021–22 bear market. Its current assessment attaches a closing and recovery condition. The sourced history supports describing the framework and its exceptions; it does not support guaranteeing the result of a new trade.

What should I check before changing a BTC order?

Check the product and amount in your own account, the chart’s weekly closing basis, and the date of the research figure you are comparing. For a derivative, also inspect the margin and liquidation terms shown in the position screen. Keep the research observation and the account decision as separate records.