JPMorgan Forecasts Bitcoin at 10% a Year, Ahead of Stocks and Gold: What the Report Really Says
The short answer
JPMorgan Asset Management's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, published on October 19, 2026, put a range on Bitcoin returns for the first time. According to Cointelegraph's reading of the report, the base case is 10% a year, against 7.5% for large-cap US stocks and 5.5% for gold, with a bull case of 16.6% and a bear case of an 11.2% annual loss. The same report says it does not make a case for Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier because its correlations are unstable, and it calls Bitcoin a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing. It is a long-run planning assumption for the next 10 to 15 years, not a price target for this year or next.
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What JPMorgan actually published
The report is the 31st annual edition of JPMorgan Asset Management's outlook, with data as of September 2026. Its stated themes are economic nationalism, faster technology adoption and shifts in capital flows, and it covers more than 200 assets. On the firm's own summary page, three points matter for a crypto reader:
- US large-cap stocks are upgraded by 80 basis points to a 7.5% expected annual return, helped by profit margins above 15%.
- Global aggregate bonds are forecast to return 5.3%, the highest in two decades, because real yields are higher.
- "For the first time, we put a range on bitcoin returns, though we do not yet include bitcoin in our main covariance matrices."
That last sentence is the key. JPMorgan has added Bitcoin to the discussion without adding it to the model that decides how much of a portfolio each asset deserves. The numbers below come from Cointelegraph's report on the document, and they are the ones to cite as "JPMorgan's projection", not as ours.
Article table: scroll horizontally, or focus the table area and use the arrow keys.
| Asset | Expected annual return (JPMorgan, 10 to 15 years) |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin, base case | 10% |
| Bitcoin, bull case | 16.6% |
| Bitcoin, bear case | -11.2% |
| US large-cap stocks | 7.5% |
| Gold | 5.5% |
| Global aggregate bonds | 5.3% |
What the numbers mean in plain money
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Open →A forecast of 10% a year sounds small next to a crypto chart, so here is our own arithmetic, compounding 1,000 dollars for ten years at each rate and ignoring fees and taxes:
Article table: scroll horizontally, or focus the table area and use the arrow keys.
| Scenario | 1,000 dollars after 10 years |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin bull case, 16.6% | about 4,645 |
| Bitcoin base case, 10% | about 2,594 |
| US large-cap stocks, 7.5% | about 2,061 |
| Gold, 5.5% | about 1,708 |
| Bitcoin bear case, -11.2% | about 305 |
Two things stand out. First, the base case beats stocks by roughly a quarter over ten years, which is why headlines say Bitcoin "outperforms". Second, the gap between the bull and bear cases is enormous: the same asset could turn 1,000 dollars into more than 4,600 or into about 300. A single number hides that spread, and the report itself describes the asset as speculative.
What the report does not say
- It is not a price target. JPMorgan gives annualized returns over a 10 to 15 year horizon. It does not say where Bitcoin will trade next month or next year.
- It is not advice to buy. The report says it does not make the case for Bitcoin as a diversifier, because its correlation with stocks and bonds is unstable. A "hedge against monetary easing" is a narrower claim than "a safe asset".
- It does not include Bitcoin in the main model. Bitcoin sits outside JPMorgan's main covariance matrices, so the usual portfolio-weight calculations do not yet include it.
- The method is long-run. Cointelegraph notes that the calculation considers Bitcoin supply growth relative to money supply, its possible role next to gold and network adoption. Those are assumptions that can be wrong in either direction.
Bitwise's chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, welcomed the inclusion and posted that JPMorgan had added Bitcoin to its long-term paper. Bitwise itself published a more bullish forecast in August 2025, according to Cointelegraph, which shows how far apart different institutions' assumptions can sit.
Why it matters for a retail investor
The practical value of the report is not the 10% headline. It is a reminder of how large institutions think about Bitcoin: a small, volatile satellite position, not a core holding, and one whose range of outcomes is wider than that of any other asset in the table.
- Size the position to the bear case, not the base case. If a loss of about 70 percent over a decade would hurt, the position is too large for you. That is arithmetic, not a forecast.
- Spread entry over time. Regular small purchases reduce the effect of one bad entry day. If you buy on a spot market, compare trading costs first. Bitget lists spot trading at 0.1 percent maker and taker on our fee comparison page, and you can open an account on the Bitget profile page with invite code nexu888.
- Keep leverage out of a long-horizon thesis. A ten-year view and a 20x perpetual position are different bets. Liquidations on the liquidation page show how often leveraged longs are wiped out before a long-term view can play out.
- Compare what you pay. On a 10% a year assumption, a fee difference of even a few tenths of a percent per trade changes the outcome, so check the rates page before choosing a venue.
Quick answers
What does JPMorgan expect from Bitcoin? A 10% annualized return in the base case, 16.6% in the bull case and an annual loss of 11.2% in the bear case, per Cointelegraph's report on the document.
How does that compare with stocks and gold? JPMorgan projects 7.5% for large-cap US stocks and 5.5% for gold, so the Bitcoin base case is higher than both.
Is Bitcoin in JPMorgan's main model? No. The firm says it does not yet include Bitcoin in its main covariance matrices.
Does JPMorgan recommend Bitcoin as a diversifier? No. According to the report, it does not make that case because of Bitcoin's unstable correlations, and it calls Bitcoin speculative.
What is the time frame? The report covers the next 10 to 15 years, not the coming months.
Where can I compare fees for buying Bitcoin? On our fee comparison page.
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