Bitcoin ETF outflow hits $412 million as IBIT's $403 million exit takes its five-day drop to $1.21 billion

One fund explains almost all of the week

SoSoValue's daily report gives each fund's all-time net inflow as well as the day's flow, so the sessions the reports do not itemize can be worked out. IBIT's cumulative figure went from $65.905 billion after November 2 to $65.101 billion after November 6. Adding back November 2's $405 million gives a starting point of $66.31 billion, and a five-session decline of about $1.209 billion.

The November 3 row and the weekly totals are our arithmetic, using the cumulative figures PANews published on November 3 and November 5 and November 6. Each day ties out. The group's cumulative net inflow reads $56.582 billion after November 2 and $55.699 billion after November 6. Adding November 2's $399 million back gives $56.981 billion, which makes the week about $1.282 billion negative. Decrypt's total of $869.8 million for the first four sessions leads to the same place once November 6 is added: $869.8 million plus $412 million is about $1.282 billion.

IBIT's share of that weekly net outflow is about 94.3%, from $1.209 billion divided by $1.282 billion. FBTC finished the week about $94 million positive despite its $200 million exit on Thursday. Everything else in the group nets to about $167 million of outflows, which is $1.282 billion minus $1.209 billion plus $94 million.

The week also sits on top of earlier selling. Decrypt reported a $643.2 million outflow on the previous Friday, October 30, which would make the last six sessions about $1.93 billion negative. Cointelegraph put October's outflow at $515 million, so these five November sessions alone are about 2.5 times that month's total.

Friday looked much like Monday. IBIT lost $405 million on November 2, which Cointelegraph called its largest daily outflow since June 26, and $403 million on November 6. IBIT also lost money on Wednesday's positive day, when FBTC's inflow carried the group total.

How big $403 million is for IBIT

BlackRock's iShares page gives the fund's position as of November 6, which lets us scale the number.

Those ratios are ours. The weekly $1.209 billion is about 2% of the same net assets. So the fund is not emptying. Its cumulative net inflow is still $65.1 billion, and even after this week the whole group's cumulative figure is $55.7 billion. What changed is the direction: IBIT recorded net outflows in all five sessions.

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The market value also fell, and a falling Bitcoin price accounts for part of that. The group's total net asset value went from $98.125 billion in the November 3 report to $95.897 billion in the November 7 report, and the ETF share of Bitcoin's market value slipped from 6.36% to 6.28%.

One comparison gives a sense of scale. At the November 6 OKX close of 75,848.1, $403 million is about 5,313 BTC. OKX's BTC-USDT spot book traded about 5,246 BTC in the 24 hours to 20:52 SGT. The fund's flow and that order book are different markets. The reports do not say how, where or when any Bitcoin behind the redemptions changed hands, so the comparison is only about size.

BlackRock's funds led the Ether outflow too

The same pattern showed up in Ether on November 6. PANews reported a $93.19 million net outflow from US spot Ether ETFs, with BlackRock's ETHA losing $90.76 million, while its staked product ETHB took in $1.15 million. ETHA is about 97.4% of that group's outflow, and IBIT is about 97.8% of Bitcoin's. Across both groups, those two funds account for $493.76 million of $505.19 million.

That concentration tells you something about the shape of the day. It does not tell you who the holders were. One large allocator, many small ones and a model portfolio change could all print the same number, and none of the reports separates them. We covered the Ether side in the ETHA report.

How to read the next flow report

Three details keep these numbers from misleading you.

The date is one day behind in Asia. A report published on Saturday in Singapore describes Friday in New York, so the November 7 headlines were about November 6.

Cumulative net inflow and net asset value measure different things. The first counts dollars that came in and went out, so it moves only with flows. The second is what the holdings are worth now, so it also falls when Bitcoin falls. This week the cumulative figure dropped about 2.2%, from $56.981 billion to $55.699 billion.

Trackers round differently, so stay with one when you compare days. For November 2, SoSoValue via PANews gave $405 million for IBIT, and Farside via Cointelegraph gave $405.3 million. For November 4, Decrypt gave $201.2 million against SoSoValue's $201 million. The gaps so far are rounding, and they do not change the story.

What the price did

OKX's daily UTC candles show that most of the damage came before Friday's outflow.

Thursday's 5.49% fall matched a broader risk selloff. CNBC reported that the Nasdaq slid more than 5% that day, closing more than 11% below its record, which put it in correction territory. Then came the October jobs report, which we covered in 165,000 US jobs and the December hike odds. Polymarket's contract on a 25-basis-point December increase stood at 76.5% when we read it at about 20:52 SGT. The low of 74,887.9 on OKX came on November 6, the same UTC day as the outflow, and the price closed about 1.3% above it.

None of these sources links a specific ETF redemption to the jobs data or the Nasdaq, and we are not drawing that line either. The figures show that the money left in a week when several risk markets were weak.

Positioning is calm, for now

Perpetual markets do not look stretched in either direction. Funding rates on BTC are close to zero:

OKX's BTC-USDT perpetual had open interest of about 34,481 BTC, or $2.62 billion, at 20:52 SGT. Our liquidations page recorded $97.8 million of liquidations in the 24 hours to 20:46 SGT on Binance and OKX. Longs were $68.9 million of that, about 70%, and BTC contracts were $14.5 million. In the most recent four hours the total was only about $5.2 million.

What this means for you: a BTC position over the weekend

ETF flows are only published after a US session closes, and the ETF market is shut until Monday. Crypto perps trade through the weekend with no flow data to read. If you hold spot Bitcoin with no margin, none of this forces a decision, because a flow report cannot liquidate you. The steps below are for margin accounts.

1. Check your margin against this week's range. On November 5, BTC's high-to-low swing on OKX was 7.06%, from 80,914.2 to 75,200. On a $10,000 long at 10x with $1,000 of margin, a move that size is about $706, or about 71% of the margin, before fees and funding.
2. Check the funding on your own venue. Using the rates above, $10,000 of BTC long pays about $0.48 per 8 hours on OKX and receives about $0.11 on Bitget. Neither figure should drive the decision. A jump would tell you more.
3. Compare fees. A $10,000 perpetual taker trade costs $6 on Bitget at 0.06%, and the 60% rebate returns $3.60 daily. On OKX it costs $5 at 0.05%, and the 20% rebate returns $1 hourly. The code for both is nexu888. Sign-up paths are on our Bitget profile and OKX profile.
4. Set a reminder for the next data point. Monday's flows, for November 9 Eastern Time, should appear in Tuesday's SGT reports. This week's PANews and Odaily reports came out around 13:00 SGT.

What to watch next

IBIT's cumulative net inflow of $65.101 billion and the group's $55.699 billion are the two numbers to compare in the next report. A further decline in IBIT with inflows elsewhere would repeat this week's split. The group share of Bitcoin's value, now 6.28%, shows whether ETF holdings are shrinking faster than the price.

What we could not confirm

We could not open SoSoValue or Farside directly. Both returned a block page to our requests, and Foresight News returned an error, so the fund figures come through PANews, Odaily and Decrypt, which cite those trackers. iShares confirms the fund's size and share data for November 6, though the page we read does not state the day's flow. No source identifies who redeemed or why. The November 3 flow row comes from our calculation, not from a published daily line.