165,000 U.S. jobs push December Fed hike odds to 76.5% on Polymarket as Bitcoin briefly loses $75,000

What the jobs report said

BLS payroll series CES0000000001 puts total nonfarm employment at 159,293,000 in October against 159,128,000 in September, a gain of 165,000. The BLS household series LNS14000000 shows unemployment at 4.1%, down from 4.2%.

ING's economist James Knightley put hourly wage growth at 0.4% on the month and 3.1% on the year, above consensus estimates of 0.3% and 2.9%. He also counted 84,000 jobs of upward revisions over the prior two months. Bitcoin Magazine splits that into August at 186,000 and September at 60,000.

The size of the beat depends on which forecast you read. Bitcoin Magazine cites 59,000, a CoinDesk headline says 65,000 and ING says 75,000. All three sit well below the actual number, so the direction of the surprise is not in dispute.

ING's sector detail shows where the gain came from. Private education and health care added 53,000, transport and warehousing 25,000, manufacturing 19,000 and temporary help 19,000, while leisure and hospitality lost 13,000 and construction lost 3,000. Manufacturing has now added 86,000 jobs over five months, after three straight years of decline, and that breadth is part of why ING reads the report as support for a hike.

How rate pricing moved

The Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4% on October 28. A 25-basis-point hike in December would lift the range to 4% to 4.25%.

SponsoredBitget

Partner rebate share60%Up to

Check regional eligibility and account terms

→Enter the code when you sign up: nexu888

Sign up on Bitget →Codenexu888Copied

SponsoredOKX

Partner rebate share20%Up to

Check regional eligibility and account terms

✓Code applied automatically by the sign-up link: nexu888

Sign up on OKX →Codenexu888Copied

The same market priced "no change" at 21.5% at the last reading. Its seven-day range for the hike contract runs from 63.5% to 81.5%, so the odds have swung by 18 points in a week. The December event had about $16.5 million in total volume on Polymarket.

Rates traders told a similar story through a different instrument. ING said futures priced about 20 basis points for December, having been "close to a 50:50 call at one point" in recent days, and it expects the Fed to hike. PANews reported short-term rate futures falling after the data. U.S. Treasury daily yields show the 2-year at 4.51% on November 6, up from 4.46% a day earlier. The 10-year rose less, from 4.84% to 4.86%.

What Bitcoin did, in order

Bitcoin's first move was up. Bitcoin Magazine described a quick spike above $76,100, followed by a slide toward $75,600. OKX 15-minute candles show the same shape: a high of 76,129.8 USDT and a low of 75,600 USDT in the candle that opened at 21:30 SGT, when the data came out.

The break below 75,000 came later, in the candle that opened at 23:00 SGT, with a low of 74,887.9 USDT. That candle closed at 75,848 USDT, so Bitcoin spent less than 15 minutes under 75,000 on that venue. ChainCatcher's morning brief gives a matching 24-hour low of $74,888.

Those 90 minutes matter when you read the headlines. The timing fits a rates story, but none of the sources we opened isolates the jobs report as the cause of the later dip. U.S. stocks went the other way on the day: ChainCatcher has the Nasdaq up 1.1% at 24,579.42 and the S&P 500 up 0.3% at 7,376.86, with the Dow down 0.5% at 51,285.73.

Gold perpetuals eased too. OKX's XAU-USDT perpetual traded at 4,081.7 at 08:42 SGT, 0.62% below its 24-hour open of 4,107.3, after a low of 4,028.

Our liquidation data

On our liquidations page, the three hourly readings after the release total $57.87 million ($10.36M + $24.95M + $22.56M), observed on Binance and OKX. Longs were $42.05 million of that, or 72.7%. The largest single order in the 24 hours to 08:40 SGT was a $2.88 million ETHUSDT long, closed out at 21:30:04 SGT, four seconds after the release.

The hours looked different from each other. Longs took $8.58 million of the first $10.36 million. The second hour, which held the dip below 75,000, hit both sides, with $14.79 million of longs and $10.16 million of shorts. Longs dominated again in the third, at $18.68 million of $22.56 million.

The peak hour of $24.95 million is small next to the $428 million long wipeout we reported a day earlier. One reading is that much of the leverage had already gone before the jobs data arrived, although our data cannot show how much is still open. OKX's BTC perpetual alone still showed about $2.63 billion in open interest at 08:42 SGT.

What to check on your exchange

Start with the distance to your liquidation price. The move from 76,129.8 to 74,887.9 USDT was 1.63%. Before fees and funding, here is what that does to a long opened at the high with margin of 1 divided by leverage:

Maintenance requirements mean liquidation arrives before the margin reaches zero, so the 50x line is closer to the edge than it looks.

Then check funding on our funding rates page. BTC funding was positive at each venue we read around 08:40 SGT: 0.0093% on Binance, 0.0060% on OKX and 0.0035% on Bitget. Longs pay. On a $10,000 position, that is about $0.35 to $0.93 per eight-hour period.

Fees are the part you can lower before you trade. A $10,000 market order on Bitget perpetuals costs $6 at the 0.06% taker rate, and an account registered with code nexu888 gets up to 60% of that fee back, which is $3.60. The same order on OKX costs $5 at 0.05%, with up to 20% back on code nexu888, or $1. See the Bitget exchange page or the OKX exchange page for the sign-up route. The rebate is a share of the fee you pay, not of the position.

What to watch next

The next release is October CPI, due next week according to ING, which says core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% on the month. ING says that reading would support its view of a single hike followed by a long pause, and it notes that markets no longer fully price additional hikes in 2027.

What we could not confirm

The BLS news release page returned HTTP 403 and we did not open CME FedWatch in this run, so the job figures come from the BLS data service and the probability figures above are Polymarket's. CoinDesk's article body returned HTTP 429, so we used only its headline for the 65,000 forecast. The Fed has made no December decision.