Silver slips back below $50 as December Fed hike odds reach 73%: XAG perpetuals test the 11-month low

What is new since our last two silver reports

On 31 October we covered silver's first drop below $50, when XAG perpetuals lost nearly 5% in a day. On 2 November we covered the rebound to $51, a 3.84% intraday rise. Tuesday erased that rebound. FXStreet's 15:54 SGT note said silver "reverses the previous day's recovery gains" and dropped back toward its lowest level since November 2025.

Three things are different this time. The Fed hike probability is now a named, high number. A military report has been added to the oil story. And the US midterm elections take place the same day, which FXStreet and Brown Brothers Harriman both flag as a source of uncertainty for metals and the dollar.

Timeline (SGT, with source UTC in brackets)

Why silver is falling

FXStreet's Asian-session report links the move to three forces. First, the Wall Street Journal, citing US officials, reported that a raid on Iran's Qeshm Island on Monday was part of a covert sequence of limited strikes against Iranian targets in recent weeks. Iranian state outlet Press TV separately reported that the Revolutionary Guard downed two US drones near the island. Higher energy costs feed inflation, and inflation keeps central banks hawkish.

Second, that hawkish stance is now priced. FXStreet cites CME FedWatch at roughly 73% odds of a December hike. Silver pays no interest, so rising rate expectations work against it. FXStreet's gold report on the same morning adds a data point: the ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 in October from 54.5, which it says "reaffirmed hawkish Fed bets." Gold slipped below $3,900 in that report.

Third, a broad sell-off in technology and AI equities triggered liquidations across markets, according to FXStreet. Traders who need cash sell what they can, and precious metals were part of that.

The midterm vote adds a fourth unknown. Brown Brothers Harriman strategists, quoted by FXStreet, say "Democrats are widely expected to win the House of Representatives" while Senate control "is much closer."

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What the perpetual markets showed

We read the public market APIs of three exchanges that list a USDT-margined silver perpetual between 16:51 and 16:54 SGT:

Binance's 24-hour change was -3.57% on $856.28 million of quote volume. Bitget's was -3.48%. Binance reported open interest of 5,699,069.692 XAG; at its $48.80 mark price that is about $278 million of notional (5,699,069.692 × $48.80). Bitget's ticker showed 704,285.32 XAG of open positions, about $34.4 million at $48.83. On OKX the last settled funding rate was 0.0145%, so a $10,000 long paid about $1.45 for that period, and the current estimate was 0.0086%, about $0.86.

The perpetual lows of $48.81 and $48.82 sit just below the $48.87 spot low FXStreet cites for 30 October. Perpetuals follow their own index and trade around the clock, so a perpetual print below that level is not the same as a new spot low. It does show that contract traders have already tested it.

Funding stayed close to zero on all three venues. Longs were paying little to hold, which suggests the drop was not driven by an expensive, crowded long trade. For the latest readings across venues, see our funding rates board.

Where the chart levels sit

FXStreet's technical note puts silver's relative strength index near 28, which it calls oversold, and says bears may wait for "a sustained break and acceptance below the $49.00 round figure" before adding positions. On the upside it lists $50.00, then $50.35 and $51.00, with the 100-hour exponential moving average at $51.40 as the main resistance. These are FXStreet's levels, not a forecast from us.

What this means for you

If you hold a silver perpetual, check three things before the US session.

Your contract size. OKX's instrument data lists one XAG-USDT-SWAP contract as 0.01 XAG. At $48.83, 100 contracts equal 1 XAG, or $48.83 of exposure. Bitget's contract API lists a 0.01 XAG size step and a 5 USDT minimum order.

Your funding schedule. Bitget's API shows a 4-hour funding interval on XAGUSDT, shorter than the 8 hours on its BTC and ETH contracts. A position held through the day settles funding six times.

Your liquidation price against the day's range. Silver moved about $2.58 between Binance's 24-hour high and low, roughly 5% of the price. A 20x position has less than a 5% buffer once maintenance margin and fees are counted, so a range like Tuesday's can reach it.

US JOLTS job openings data is due later on Tuesday, and FXStreet notes that Friday's nonfarm payrolls report is the bigger event for rate expectations.

How to act on this

Silver perpetuals on Bitget charge the same standard 0.02% maker and 0.06% taker rates as its crypto contracts, according to its contract API, and NexuAlpha's partner registry records a 60% share of those fees returned daily for accounts opened through our Bitget exchange page. On a $10,000 XAGUSDT taker order that means a $6.00 fee and $3.60 back. OKX lists the same metal as XAG-USDT-SWAP; its contract specs and our registry figures are on the OKX exchange page.

Quick answers

Why is silver down today?

FXStreet links the fall to about 73% odds of a December Fed hike on CME FedWatch, oil-driven inflation fears after a Wall Street Journal report of US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, and a sell-off in tech and AI stocks.

How low did silver go on 3 November?

PANews had spot silver at $49.991 at 11:15 SGT. FXStreet later put it just above $49.00. XAGUSDT perpetuals traded as low as $48.81 on Binance in the 24 hours to 16:51 SGT.

Is $48.87 the low to watch?

FXStreet names $48.87, set on 30 October, as the 11-month spot low, and $49.00 as the level bears want to see broken.

What we could not confirm

We did not find an official US statement on the Qeshm Island raid; the account comes from the Wall Street Journal via FXStreet. The 73% hike probability is FXStreet's reading of FedWatch at the time of its report and moves with the data.